Anchored by the federal government and representing the core of Ontario’s second-largest city, Ottawa Centre is home to the city’s urban population and an Ontario NDP stronghold.
With its usual candidate climbing the ladder this year, the riding could become a bit of a battleground — but the jury’s still out on that.
Ottawa Centre, the most central riding in the City of Ottawa, is only 37 square kilometres but home to 126,360 Ottawans. It is home to the Glebe, Centretown, Westboro, Rideauview, Little Italy, Dow’s Lake, Old Ottawa South, Old Ottawa East and part of the downtown core.
The riding has been held by NDP member Joel Harden since 2018, who took over from Liberal Yasir Naqvi when Naqvi made the switch to federal politics. It has historically been held either by the Liberals of NDP; when one party holds the federal seat, the other tends to take the provincial one.
Jonathan Malloy is a professor of political science at Carleton University where he specializes in Canadian political institutions and both federal and provincial politics. He’s also a resident of Ottawa Centre and says it “has been a Liberal-NDP battleground for many years.”
“It flips back and forth between the two parties, and there tends to be an alternation. It switched a few years ago. It had been a federal NDP seat and provincially Liberal, then switched over a few years ago,” he told QP Briefing. “What seems to be the case, though, is I think the NDP is clearly trying to have it all for itself without sharing it with the Liberals there.
Harden is now following in his predecessor’s footsteps and announced he will be running for the federal seat in Ottawa Centre in the next election. In his place, long-serving city councillor and former mayoral candidate Catherine McKenney has been nominated as the NDP candidate for the riding.
McKenney was elected as a city councillor in 2014 after working at the City in senior positions. They were also a candidate in the mayoral race in 2022, running against now-Mayor Mark Sutcliffe. McKenney is also the co-founder of CitySHAPES, a national nonprofit organization dedicated to affordable housing, city-building and ending homelessness.
Ottawa Centre is similar to most urban centres in its NDP-Liberal leanings, said Malloy. It just doesn’t seem to be the centre of the Liberals’ focus this time around.
“It reflects the dynamics that you’ll generally see in the core of any large city, which is to say that you’ve got extremes. You’ve got both some fairly wealthy neighbourhoods and also some fairly low-income neighbourhoods,” he explained. “You’re generally going to have a high level of diversity, and you will see a lot of interest in urban issues of public transit, affordability, and different things like that.”
The NDP couldn’t have picked a better “succession plan” to ensure an NDP victory despite Harden’s departure, said Malloy.
“Harden has been elected twice now, provincially, and now the party has nominated a very strong, high profile candidate for the provincial seat in Catherine McKinney,” he explained. “They’ve got a strong incumbent who’s now moving to federal and then a very high profile provincial candidate who did very well in the mayoral election two years ago and won the wards that Ottawa Centre is part of.”
Also vying for the seat is Liberal candidate Thomas Simpson, a newcomer to politics. Simpson has previously worked as a public servant and accessibility advocate, currently serving as a vice-president at the Canadian National Institute for the Blind.
Malloy said that while Simpson certainly seems capable, he said he’s “surprised” that the Liberals did not choose a more familiar or veteran candidate.
“What I really find interesting is that the Liberals don’t appear to be making a strong play for [Ottawa Centre. I would have thought the Liberals would have tried their best to win back this seat, and they certainly have a strong local organization,” said Malloy. “So it’s just interesting that the Ottawa central provincial liberals don’t seem to be pulling out all the stops to win back this riding.
He said this could be a tactical decision as the Liberals focus their efforts on beating Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives rather than going to war with the NDP — even just as a way to manage resources.
It could also be a matter of retention, and Ottawa Centre can reveal more about the Liberals’ strategy for this election, he said. For example, Ottawa West tends to be more conservative, while eastern ridings lean Liberal. But in Kanata-Carleton, where Liberal Karen McCrimmon holds the provincial seat, the Liberals seem to be focusing resources on retaining the riding and ensuring McCrimmon’s re-election.
This just doesn’t seem to be happening in Ottawa Centre.
The Progressive Conservatives have offered Scott Healey, a Canadian Armed Forces veteran who has participated in provincial and federal conservative campaigns since the 1980s. He’s on the board of the Ottawa Centre PC Association, but this is his first time running for the seat. He’s campaigning on healthcare, affordable housing, “productivity”, “competitiveness through innovation”, and a “rational” approach to tackling climate change.
Meanwhile, small business owner Simon Beckett is the face of the Green Party of Ontario in Ottawa Centre. His campaign is prioritizing affordable housing, healthcare, and investments in mental health and addiction services.
Of the four, McKenney is the only candidate who has been elected to public office — and held it.
“You never know what will happen in elections. But that said, the NDP won the seat the last two elections and they have a very strong candidate who already has been elected there and has attracted a lot of votes previously in the riding,” he said. “So it does seem to be that McKinney is going to win it.
“So you really never know, but the nature of political campaigns is, if you campaign you have to pick where to focus the resources. And it’s really interesting that the other parties don’t seem to be focusing much on Ottawa Center at all.”
But not everyone shares his view.
Ashley Csanady, liberal strategist and vice-president at McMillan Vantage, said the Liberals are “really confident” about holding the its seats in the Ottawa region — and adding Simpson in Ottawa Centre.
“It’s a really tough race because of who he’s running against, but I think it’s not by any means a foregone conclusion,” she told QPBriefing. “It’s Liberal federally, and I know [Naqvi] is out there and knocking doors for [Simpson], and we have a strong work on the ground in Ottawa. So, that’s definitely a race to watch. I think that’ll be a close one.”
At the same time, veteran PC operative Thomas Gendron said he’s watching the Ottawa riding with “great interest”, which he said “aren’t looking incredibly solid right now.”
“It could be from Trudeau, it could be from disenfranchisement with the party itself and their poor performance in two previous elections,” he said. “But, either way, it looks as though there’s a possibility of potential gains there.”
Ontario voters will go to the polls Feb. 27 and we’ll see if the NDP’s legacy in Ottawa Centre is enough to hold Ottawa’s most central riding.
