Mark Sutcliffe is narrowly leading a crowded race for the mayor’s chair despite his poor approval ratings, according to a new poll from Liaison Strategies.
Sutcliffe, who hasn’t officially announced his intention to run for a second term, was the top choice of 37 per cent of decided and leaning voters.
The poll, commissioned by the Ottawa Compass and iPolitics, tested Sutcliffe and four other prospective candidates. This includes Coun. Tim Tierney, who has announced his plans to seek re-election in Beacon Hill-Cyrville rather than run for mayor.
Kitchissippi Ward Coun. Jeff Leiper finished second to Sutcliffe, drawing the support of 32 per cent of respondents. Homebuilder Alex Lawson followed with 14 per cent, while Tierney drew the backing of 11 per cent of voters.
Economist and community organizer Neil Saravanmuttoo rounded out the field at five per cent.
Around 1,000 Ottawa residents were randomly surveyed between May 8 to 10 using random digit dialling across landline and cellphone networks. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.09 percentage points.
“Tierney’s entry does not knock Sutcliffe out of first place, and it does not push Leiper out of second,” David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies said in a statement. “What it does do is add another double-digit candidate to the decided-and-leaning ballot, which makes the challenger field more crowded.”
Tierney’s prospective candidacy appeared to have the strongest impact in East Ottawa, where he polled at 27 per cent among decided-and-leaning voters, compared to 33 per cent for Sutcliffe and 24 percent for Leiper.
Among all voters, 34 per cent remained undecided when Tierney was included on the ballot, compared to 41 per cent without him.
Sutcliffe, Leiper and Lwason post identical support levels in both scenarios, suggesting that Tierney’s presence primarily pulls from undecided voters.
“For Sutcliffe, the race is still manageable but not comfortable. He leads both decided-and-leaning ballot tests, but his approval is underwater and down from April,” Valentin said, noting Sutcliffe’s job approval stands at 41 per cent, down four points from last month.
“Voters can prefer the incumbent and still be unhappy with the way the city is going,” he said.
The poll found housing affordability leads as the issue agenda, followed by transit, inflation, homelessness, crime and other.
“Only one in four residents think Ottawa is moving in the right direction, that creates room for challengers, but the ballot shows that no single challenger has consolidated that dissatisfaction yet,” Valentin said.
