Ottawa Centre

Turning first to the city’s downtown core, Liberal Yasir Naqvi is seeking re-election for Ottawa Centre, a seat he has held since 2021. Prior to that, he represented the riding in the provincial legislature after succeeding in 2007 in his first bid, then winning re-election in both 2011 and 2014. In 2018, he sought a fourth mandate but came in second behind NDP candidate Joel Harden.

Now, Naqvi will be facing a familiar foe in Harden, who has made the jump to Parliament Hill and is running as the federal NDP candidate for Ottawa Centre. 

Jeff Rutledge, vice-president of McMillan Vantage and Conservative strategist, said he’s watching Ottawa Centre with interest and that the race will be a “curious” one as Naqvi and Harden hash it out.

“I think that they are both trading independently on their names, detached from their party, and they have both straddled…The provincial-federal line,” he told iPolitics. “I think that that helps them to have a much more robust profile. 

“And as progressive candidates — although I would say that Mr. Harden leans quite a bit further left than Mr. Naqvi —- I think it’ll be fairly competitive,” he added.

Harden won the provincial vote in 2018 with 46.1 per cent of the vote, and his popularity in the riding makes Ottawa Centre “the most interesting” local riding for Marci Surkes, managing director of Compass Rose and former executive director of policy and cabinet affairs in the Prime Minister’s Office.

“[Ottawa Centre] is one where it is never necessarily a seat that can be taken for granted for the Liberals,” Surkes told iPolitics. “The NDP has deep core organization, and we’ve already seen [Jagmeet] Singh supporting Mr. Harden. 

“Mr. Harden is a very colourful candidate, he’s a very high profile candidate, and he has very well-articulated what may be considered really to the left of the New Democratic Party stream,” she continued. “And so that sort of profile will play and garner a lot of attention for the New Democrats there.”

She said that while she expects Naqvi will be successful in holding on to his seat, the Liberals will have to “work hard to keep it.” Polling from 388 Canada shows Naqvi leading in the riding, but the latest results showed a downward trend for the Liberals.

That said, despite the NDP’s decline in the latest polls on a national level, Harden is still a popular member of the Ottawa Centre community, and Surkes said this is one seat “where a local candidate could potentially make a difference.”

Nepean

Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced he will be seeking the seat in Nepean, a riding previously occupied by Chandra Arya, who held the seat from 2015 until he — very recently — was ousted by the Liberal Party last month.

On March 22, Arya said his nomination to run for the party again in his Ottawa riding had been revoked, almost two months after the party also told Arya it would not accept him as a candidate for the leadership.

National campaign director Andrew Bevan informed Arya in a letter just days before the election was called.

Arya had already been nominated, but the letter said new information obtained by the party’s “green light committee” led the campaign co-chair to recommend that his “status as a candidate” be revoked.

Soon after, Carney announced he would be taking over as the Liberal candidate for the riding. He’ll be facing off against Conservative Barbara Bal.

Notably, Carney lives in Rockcliffe, and his perceived distance from Ottawa’s west end could be a weakness to his campaign. During a speech outside Rideau Hall on Mar. 23, he mistakenly said Bells Corners, a community in the Kanata riding, was part of Nepean.

“Not only has he only presented as the candidate for that riding in the last week, but he needs to get up to speed fairly quickly in terms of local politics and local riding considerations,” said Surkes.

Liberal strategist John O’Leary said Carney’s choice to run here could indicate that he didn’t want to “push out” an incumbent, but rather run for an “open seat”, and rely on the surrounding Liberal incumbents.

He also said that the time of voters being deterred by an “out-of-town” candidate are likely over.

Rutledge doesn’t agree. 

“There have been some rough stumbles at the beginning, and not knowing necessarily what was in his riding and what was not in his riding rubbed a lot of people the wrong way and signalled what can be one of the greatest criticisms of parachute candidates — which is they don’t know the people and they don’t know the issue,” he said. 

“Particularly for a riding like the one that Mr. Carney is running in … I think he is struggling to connect with both the new members of the riding and those older, more traditional voters who are trying to understand how a parachute candidate can connect with them.” 

To Rutledge, the race in Nepean might be more competitive than Carney has let on. Currently, 388 Canada is showing Nepean as a “safe” seat for the Liberals, with the Conservatives 19 percentage points behind Carney.

The riding is also in Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s backyard. 

Carleton

Pierre Poilievre first won the Carleton seat in 2004 from Liberal incumbent David Pratt, and has held it since. Now Carney is at his doorstep, as Surkes said.

“We have a side-by-side, head-to-head competition in the west end of Ottawa that I think few political observers saw coming, in terms of both of the major party leaders vying for the role of Prime Minister actually abutting one another in their local races,” she said. “And naturally in those ridings, there is very considerable overlap in terms of the issues, in terms of the organizers, in terms of the community concerns. 

“So both Mr. Carney and Mr. Poilievre, although not squaring off, are swimming in the same pool.”

According to 388 Canada, the popular vote has trended considerably downwards since Justin Trudeau resigned as prime minister, and continued the downward trend when Carney was elected Liberal leader. 

On Jan. 5, the Conservatives had a comfortable 65 per cent of the popular vote, 388 Canada said, with the Liberals trailing behind with 15 per cent. On April 4, there had been a drastic change, with the Conservatives dropping to 50 per cent and the Liberals only 10 percentage points behind. 

Rutledge said Poilievre’s extensive experience in the riding and continued support for public servants, many of whom are residents of Carleton, will work in his favour, and that reports of bad polling are just attempts to distract from Carney’s “fumbles” in Nepean.

So while the odds still appear to be in Poilievre’s favour, the polls for his riding are not as confident in his victory as they have been in the past. It is no longer considered a “safe” seat for Poilievre, 388 Canada, and while he is still leading, it’s not by as large a margin as we’ve seen before. 

“I would anticipate Mr. Poilievre being successful in his riding,” said Surkes. “That said, if their internal polls and external polling continue to demonstrate a Conservative slide, Mr. Poilievre may have to focus more on his riding than he might otherwise have had to, and that will be a consideration for their national tour.”

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In a joint letter, Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe and Gatineau Mayor Maude Marquis-Bissonnette have called on federal leaders to address key challenges that they deemed “critical” to the National Capital Region. 

“This is a very important election for many reasons,” Sutcliffe said at a press conference at the Ottawa City Hall, noting the tariffs that the United States was set to impose on Canadian goods on April 2.

“But there are also some critically important, time-sensitive local issues for the National Capital Region in this campaign,” he added. “We need a strong indication during this campaign, and we need immediate action after the election to address the challenges faced by our region.”

The shared vision includes directions to revitalize downtown areas, prioritize PILT payments, support public service workers and fund public transit. 

“The federal government is still not paying its fair share of property taxes to either Ottawa or Gatineau,” said Sutcliffe. “It continues to undervalue its properties, and local taxpayers in both our cities are being forced to make up the difference.”

The letter also requests investments and support for affordable housing and homelessness, regional governance through the National Capital Commission, and infrastructure and climate resilience. 

In the letter, Sutcliffe and Marquis-Bissonnette stressed that the issues require federal involvement for long-term solutions. The letter was sent to both Prime Minister Mark Carney and Opposition Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Both major party leaders are running in Ottawa, with Poilievre hoping to hold his seat in Carleton and Carney announcing he will be seeking election in Nepean, taking over from former Liberal MP Chandra Arya.

Ottawa is primarily held by Liberal MPs, with Poilievre being the only exception. Liberal incumbents Yasir Naqvi (Ottawa Centre), Mona Fortier (Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester), Marie-France Lalonde (Orléans), Anita Vandenbeld (Ottawa West-Nepean), Jenna Sudds (Kanata) and David McGuinty (Ottawa South) are all seeking re-election. Naqvi will be facing off with Joel Harden, who is the NDP candidate and previously represented Ottawa Centre at Queen’s Park. This is his first year running federally.

Fortier has represented Ottawa-Vanier-Gloucester (previously Ottawa-Vanier) since she was elected in a 2017 by-election. She also oversaw the public service as head of the Treasury Board from 2021-2023, including the 127,440 federal workers who call the National Capital Region home.

Asked by Ottawa Compass which local issues are top of mind for her, Fortier said her focus is on revitalizing the downtown core, securing long-term funding for public transit, and ensuring “fair support” for the City of Ottawa.

She said this includes “diversifying the Byward Market” and supporting small businesses —
“the backbone of our local economy” — as well as prioritizing housing solutions, which includes federal lands that have been provided for housing through the Housing Accelerator Fund.

“I will continue to collaborate with the City to create and protect jobs, bring down the cost of living, and build a strong economy to get us through these tough times,” she said.

Turning to the west end, before entering federal politics, Sudds served as the Ottawa city councillor for Kanata North from 2018-2021. Ottawa Compass asked her campaign how Sudds would advocate for the call to action from Sutcliffe, but the response wasn’t very specific.

“[Sudds] has a great working relationship with Mayor Sutcliffe and city council,” said Sudds’ spokesperson Geneviève Lemaire. “If re-elected, she will continue collaborating closely with them to tackle the issues that matter most to the people of Ottawa.”

Asked specifically about which issues Sudds will prioritize, Lemaire said listed “Trump tariffs, cost of living, job creation, safer communities”. 

Lemaire also said that Sudds and Sutcliffe “may sometimes share different views on certain issues and the best way forward”, but that Sudds is committed to working together. She didn’t elaborate.

The party leaders and other local candidates did not respond to requests for comment in time for publication.

This article has been updated to include additional comments from candidates.

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The Liberal party confirmed the move on social media late Saturday.

The Nepean riding has been held by Liberal MP Chandra Arya for the last decade, but the party recently revoked his nomination.

The 62-year-old has represented the city’s Nepean seat since 2015. The decision to remove him comes almost two months after the party also told Arya it would not accept him as a candidate for the leadership.

National campaign director Andrew Bevan informed Arya in a letter today, just days before the election call.

Arya had already been nominated, but the letter says new information obtained by the party’s “green light committee” led the campaign co-chair to recommend that his “status as a candidate” be revoked.

Bevan does not include any details about the new information.

Arya, who shared the letter on his Facebook page, says being an MP was the “responsibility of my life.”

“While this news is deeply disappointing, it does not diminish the profound honour and privilege it has been to serve the people of Nepean — and all Canadians — as their Member of Parliament since 2015,” he wrote.

Carney will be running in a riding adjacent to his main rival, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, who is seeking re-election in the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton.

Liberal Leader Mark Carney triggered the campaign midday Sunday by visiting Gov. Gen. Mary Simon and asking her to dissolve Parliament and set an election for April 28. Speaking outside Rideau Hall following that meeting, Carney said he is offering solutions rather than anger and division.

The election call means the House of Commons won’t return to work on Monday as scheduled.

The election comes as U.S. President Donald Trump continues to threaten Canada’s sovereignty and pursues a trade war by levying steep tariffs on Canadian goods.

Canada has fought back with retaliatory tariffs, and one of the key ballot questions is certain to be which party, and party leader, is best equipped to confront Trump’s aggressive trade agenda.

Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Liberal leader and prime minister, his replacement by Carney, and Trump’s return to the White House have upended the Canadian political scene — largely eliminating the substantial polling lead the Conservatives enjoyed as recently as January and compelling Carney, Singh and Poilievre to adjust their messaging.

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The 62-year-old has represented the city’s Nepean seat since 2015.

The decision to remove him comes almost two months after the party also told Arya it would not accept him as a candidate for the leadership.

National campaign director Andrew Bevan informed Arya in a letter today, just days before an expected election call.

Arya had already been nominated, but the letter says new information obtained by the party’s “green light committee” led the campaign co-chair to recommend that his “status as a candidate” be revoked.

Bevan does not include any details about the new information.

Arya, who shared the letter on his Facebook page, says being an MP was the “responsibility of my life.”

“While this news is deeply disappointing, it does not diminish the profound honour and privilege it has been to serve the people of Nepean — and all Canadians — as their Member of Parliament since 2015,” he wrote.

The party also refused to provide any information when it rejected Arya’s candidacy for the leadership race in January.

The decision opens an Ottawa seat as an option for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has thus far not declared which riding he intends to run in during the election.

Various Liberals have suggested Carney could run in Edmonton, where he grew up; in Toronto, where the Liberals tend to do well; or in Ottawa, where he now lives.

Carney is widely expected to visit Rideau Hall to launch the election on Sunday, for a vote on either April 28 or May 5.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 20, 2025.

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Arya, who has held his riding since 2015, said the Liberal Party informed him he’s out of the running to be its next leader.

Arya, who was the first to announce his candidacy to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, said Sunday that he was waiting on official communication from the Liberals and considering his next steps.

“This decision raises significant questions about the legitimacy of the leadership race and, by extension, the legitimacy of the next prime minister of Canada,” Arya said in a social media statement.

Arya did not elaborate on his concerns or provide reasons the party gave for declining his candidacy. He did not immediately return phone calls and messages later Sunday.

Liberal party spokesman Parker Lund confirmed Arya would not be a candidate, citing a section of the national leadership rules that state a prospective candidate can be disqualified if they are found to be “manifestly unfit for the office” of leader.

That could be “due to public statements, past improper conduct, a lack of commitment to democracy, or other reputational or legal jeopardy,” the rules say.

Lund did not say what specifically led to Arya being removed from the race.

Arya was one of seven people who submitted paperwork and a refundable $50,000 deposit last week to enter the race.

Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney are widely seen as the front-runners. The Liberal Party of Canada has approved six candidates: Freeland, Carney, Nova Scotia MP Jaime Battiste, former government House leader Karina Gould, and former Brampton, Ont., Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla.

— with files from the Canadian Press

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